Ad Hoc Studies

Reactions to the Hezbollah Rocket Attack on Majdal Shams

On July 27, 2024, Hezbollah launched a Falaq 1 rocket from south Lebanon at the Druze town of Majdal Shams in the northern Golan Heights. The rocket hit a soccer field and killed 12 children and teenagers, and injured more than 40 other people; Hezbollah initially claimed it had launched a rocket at the IDF base in the Hermon area, but then published a false statement denying any connection to the attack on Majdal Shams. In view of Israel's threats of a powerful response to the attack, Hezbollah warned it was prepared for a counterstrike, even if it led to an all-out war; In Lebanon, politicians avoided blaming Hezbollah. The Lebanese foreign minister proposed the establishment of an independent commission of inquiry to determine who was responsible for attacking Majdal Shams; Iran warned that an Israeli response could expand the arena of the war, and Syria accepted Hezbollah's claim that Israel was responsible for launching the rocket which hit Majdal Shams. The Druze community in Syria blamed Hezbollah and called for the organization to be punished; The international community condemned the attack on Majdal Shams. However, many of the condemnations avoided directly blaming Hezbollah for launching the rocket.
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Escalation of the Confrontation Between Israel and the Houthis Background and Significance

On July 19, 2024, an Iranian-made UAV launched in Yemen by the Houthis exploded in Tel Aviv, killing one civilian and injuring eight others; In response, on July 20, 2024, the Israeli Air Force attacked several targets in the area of the Houthi-controlled Red Sea port of al-Hudaydah, in northwest Yemen. According to reports, at least six people were killed and more than 80 injured; On July 21, 2024, the Houthis announced the launch of ballistic missiles at Eilat. the IDF reported intercepting a missile before it entered Israeli territory; The leader of the Houthi movement said the UAV attack marked the beginning of the "fifth phase" in the "conflict" with Israel. Senior Houthi officials claimed that the Israeli attack on al-Hudaydah was a "crime" committed against "civilian facilities" which would not keep the Houthis from "supporting" the Gaza Strip; Palestinian terrorist organizations and organizations affiliated with the Iranian-led "resistance axis" praised the; In ITIC assessment, the Houthis fully intend to react directly against Israel, possibly leading to further escalation in the confrontation. Iran, whose influence on the Houthis is limited, seems to have no particular interest in expanding the conflict.
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Considerable effort by Iran to emphasize the continued support for the “resistance front” following the election of President Pezeshkian

Following the election of Masoud Pezeshkian as president of Iran on July 5, 2024, there has been a marked effort by Iran to emphasize its commitment to continuing support for the “resistance front” it leads. This is apparently due to concerns among elements of the pro-Iranian axis in the region about the consequences of the election of the reformist-leaning president, especially in view of the ongoing Iranian-led regional campaign and the fear of a possible deterioration into an all-out confrontation between Israel and Hezbollah. There have been several expressions of the effort to demonstrate continuity in the policy of support for the pro-Iranian axis in the region: messages of support from the president-elect to senior members of the “resistance front; Qods Force commander Esmail Qaani’s visit to the region in recent days and his meetings with senior members of the “resistance front”; Iranian officials’ comments about continuity of regional policy based on the perception that strengthening the “resistance” is one of the permanent pillars of the Islamic Republic; commentaries in the conservative Iranian media presenting Pezeshkian’s messages of support for the leaders of the pro-Iranian axis as an expression of his commitment to them.
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Hezbollah’s Policy for the Use of Force against Israel

On October 8, 2023, a day after the start of the war in the Gaza Strip, Hezbollah joined the fighting, opening another front on Israel's northern border. Its objective was to demonstrate solidarity with and to "support" Hamas in its war against Israel and to oblige Israel to invest combat and other resources on the northern border at the expense of fighting in the Gaza Strip; Hezbollah's policy of using force is based on its so-called "deterrent equation" of proactive attacks, attacks in response to IDF offensive activity, attacks on important Israeli targets and increasing the range of attack in response to Israeli attacks on the organization's sensitive targets; During the fighting, Hezbollah adjusted the "equation" with gradual escalation when it felt Israeli attacks had become disproportionate, usually during an escalation in the war in the Gaza Strip or following the elimination of senior Hezbollah commanders. The escalation included the use of more advanced weapons, the larger barrages of rocket launches and longer-range attacks; Meanwhile, Hezbollah is trying to preserve its "deterrent equation" even in the face of expanding the conflict should Israel initiate a ground operation in south Lebanon and to the point of an all-out war between Israel and Hezbollah.
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Reactions to the targeted killing of the commander of Hezbollah’s Aziz Unit

On July 3, 2024, Hezbollah announced the death of Muhammad Naama Nasser, aka Hajj Abu Naama, killed in an Israeli airstrike which targeted his vehicle in south Lebanon. another Hezbollah operative was killed in the attack. The IDF spokesperson confirmed that the Israeli Air Force had attacked Nasser, who since 2016 had commanded Hezbollah's Aziz Unit, which is responsible for the western sector in south Lebanon; The organization's announcement called Nasser the "shaheed commander," only the third time since the beginning of the current conflict that Hezbollah awarded the title to one of its operatives; Hezbollah's responded to the killing with six attacks on military targets in northern Israel over two days. Two of the attacks, the most extensive since the start of the hostilities in October 2023, were simultaneous, with upwards of 200 rockets and more than 20 UAVs launched at IDF headquarters and bases in the Golan Heights, the Upper Galilee and the Western Galilee. An IDF soldier was killed, three civilians were injured and fires broke out in various areas; Senior Hezbollah figures said killing Abu Naama would not weaken the organization and or stop the "resistance".
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Reactions to the targeted killing of Taleb Sami Abdallah, commander of Hezbollah’s al-Nasr unit

On June 12, 2024, Hezbollah announced the death of Sami Taleb Abdallah, aka al-Hajj Abu Taleb, in an Israeli airstrike on a building in the town of Jwayya in south Lebanon. Three other Hezbollah operatives were killed in the attack. The IDF spokesperson confirmed that the Israeli Air Force had attacked Abdallah, who since 2016 had been in command of Hezbollah's al-Nasr unit, which operates in the eastern sector of south Lebanon; The Hezbollah announcement of his death referred to Abdallah as "the shaheed commander", an expression of his senior position. Hezbollah also published photos and videos of Abdallah, showing him with Hezbollah secretary general Hassan Nasrallah and the commanders of the Iranian Qods Force; The Hezbollah-affiliated media called the killing of Abdallah a "brutal and severe blow" to the organization. However, senior Hezbollah figures claimed his death would not change its commitment to "support" the Palestinians in the current conflict, adding that the organization would intensify its fighting against Israel; Hezbollah's response to the killing of Abdallah was a sharp increase in the attacks on Israeli territory, which lasted for several days. According to Hezbollah, part of its response was the most extensive attack it had carried out so far, including the launch of 30 UAVs and 150 rockets at IDF headquarters and bases in the Galilee and the Golan Heights. Two IDF soldiers and two civilians were injured and widespread fires broke out in Israel's northern region.
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