Ad Hoc Studies

On August 25, 2024, Hezbollah claimed responsibility for a combined rocket-UAV attack on military targets in Israel in retaliation for the killing of Fuad Shukr, the organization's military commander, in an Israeli targeted attack in Beirut on July 30, 2024. Hezbollah claimed the attack had achieved its goals. Earlier, a hundred Israeli Air Force fighter jets carried out a pre-emptive strike against thousands of Hezbollah rocket and missile launchers in south Lebanon which were aimed at northern and central Israel; Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah secretary general, claimed 340 rockets had been fired at IDF bases in northern Israel, after which a large number of UAVs were launched deep into Israeli territory, hitting an aerial defense base and an intelligence base. He added that if the results were not "satisfactory" Hezbollah "reserved the right" to carry out further attacks; Contrary to Nasrallah's claim, the aerial defense and intelligence bases were not attacked. Israel's aerial defense forces, the Israeli Air Force and the Israeli Navy intercepted most of the rocket and UAV launches. One IDF soldier was killed and two were injured by an interceptor explosion near a Navy ship. A woman was injured by shrapnel in Acre and extensive property damage was caused; Iran and the "resistance axis" organizations, including Hamas and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad, praised Hezbollah for the attack on Israel; Social media users in Lebanon and the Arab world mocked Hezbollah's attack; Hezbollah made an effort to establish the false narrative that the IDF's preemptive attack was unsuccessful, did not cause significant damage to the organization, and claimed success in hitting important targets in Israel. That was because Hezbollah wanted to justify its activities to the citizens of Lebanon, hide the extent of the damage caused to the organization by the preemptive attack, and possibly because the extent of the damage had not yet been fully calculated; In ITIC assessment , after Hezbollah finishes retaliating for the death of Fuad Shukr, its attacks on the northern border will continue according to the organization's initial use of force and "equations," which includes proactive fire near the border and reactive fire further away with varying extent, depending on the strength and nature of the IDF's proactive activity. Read more...

Since Hezbollah began attacking Israel on October 8, 2023, there has been internal criticism in Lebanon of the organization's decision to fight against Israel, claiming it was "supporting" the Gaza Strip. The murder of 12 children and teenagers by a rocket fired by Hezbollah at Majdal Shams on July 27, 2024, and its threats to respond "strongly" to Israel's elimination of Fuad Shukr, its military commander, in Beirut on July 31, 2024, increased the Lebanese public's fear that the situation would deteriorate from border fighting in south Lebanon into an all-out war; Public criticism comes mainly from a handful of politicians and media figures, most of them Christians known to oppose Hezbollah. They accuse Hezbollah of acting contrary to the national interest and endangering the lives of the Lebanese by fighting an unnecessary war for the sake of Iran; More sharp criticism against Hezbollah appears on social networks, where posts call the organization "terrorist" and express public support for the death of Hezbollah secretary general Hassan Nasrallah. Some public criticism has also appeared in the form of signs opposing the war, but no one accepted responsibility for them; Criticism of Hezbollah is also reflected in the reception received by the Shi'ites who fled the Hezbollah stronghold in south Beirut in fear of Israeli attacks; Hassan Nasrallah warned it played into Israel's hands and called on those who did not support the organization "not to stab the 'resistance' in the back." Despite the response, apparently so far the criticism has not had a significant impact on the decisions Hezbollah makes. Read more...