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Ad Hoc Studies

The Houthis in Yemen threaten Israel with ground attacks

Since the beginning of the war in the Gaza Strip on October 7, 2023, the participation of the Houthis in the "resistance axis" has been limited to direct UAV and missile attacks on Israeli targets, especially in the south of the country. The most significant was the Houthi drone attack on Tel Aviv on July 19, 2024, to which Israel responded with an Israeli Air Force attack on the Yemeni port in the city of al-Hudaydah the following day; In recent weeks, the Houthis have increased their overt threats to attack Israel, including ground attacks. They also held military exercises simulating infiltrating through tunnels, taking control of Israeli military bases and abducting soldiers. According to reports, Houthi fighters have arrived in Syria and are overseen by the pro-Iranian militias; In ITIC assessment, the Houthis do in fact aspire to carry out a ground attack, partially as a response to Israel's attack on al-Hudaydah. Collaboration with Iran and the other "resistance axis" partners, led by the militias in Iraq and Hezbollah in Lebanon, enables the Houthis to overcome the great geographical distance between Yemen and Israel and move fighters close to the Israeli border for a limited direct ground attack on Israeli territory. They may try to infiltrate an Israeli civilian community or a military base, as they did in the simulations in Yemen, or participate actively as a Hezbollah auxiliary force should there be significant escalation in the fighting in the north. They would also continue their attempts to attack targets in Israeli territory with missiles or drones, as they have done since the beginning of the war.
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ISIS calls for jihad in Europe to avenge Muslim deaths in the Gaza Strip

On August 29, 2024, an editorial in the ISIS al-Nabā’ weekly called on Muslims in Europe to carry out "lone wolf" attacks on Jews and Christians in retaliation for the war in the Gaza Strip and European governmental support for Israel; The editorial was published in the wake of two terrorist attacks, one in Germany and the other un Russia, for which ISIS claimed responsibility, stating they were carried out "to avenge the Muslims in Palestine."
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Escalation and Thwarting of Terrorism in Northern Samaria

On the night of August 27-28, 2024, Israeli security forces launched counterterrorism operations in Jenin and its environs, in the Nur Shams refugee camp in Tulkarm, and the al-Far’a refugee camp in the Tubas area. The operation in Jenin continues (as of September 2, 2024), while the other two operations have been completed. An IDF soldier was killed and at least ten other members of the Israeli security forces were wounded; During the operation, the forces killed more than 25 terrorist operatives in airstrikes and exchanges of fire, including commanders of terrorist networks in Jenin and Tulkarm, detained wanted persons, located explosives laboratories and large quantities of weapons, and destroyed IEDs planted on traffic routes; Concurrently with the IDF operations, two terrorist attacks were carried out. Two car bombs driven by terrorists exploded in the Gush Etzion area, wounding three security personnel. Three policemen were shot dead in a shooting attack in the South Hebron Hills. A car bomb was found near the community of Ateret; During 2024, some processes and trends can be identified that contributed to the increase in terrorist activity in Judea and Samaria, especially in northern Samaria, which in the ITIC’s assessment are expected to continue even after the activity of the Israeli security forces: efforts by Hamas and Iran to encourage terrorist activity through incitement, directing terrorist attacks, and smuggling weapons and money; cooperation between armed terrorist networks belonging to various Palestinian organizations; increasing use of powerful IEDs for terrorist attacks in Judea and Samaria and inside Israel; increase attempts to carry out shooting attacks targeting Israeli communities in the Seam Zone.
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The Organizations Assisting Hezbollah in Combat Against Israel

On October 8, 2023, following the Hamas terrorist attack and massacre carried out the previous day, Hezbollah opened a front against Israel from Lebanon "in support of the Gaza Strip." Since the beginning of the fighting, Hamas, the Palestinian Islamic Jihad, Amal, al-Jama'ah al-Islamiyya, the Lebanese Resistance Brigades and the Syrian Social-Nationalist Party have joined Hezbollah in the fighting, to a greater or lesser degree; Unlike Hezbollah, which has so far claimed responsibility for more than 2,200 attacks, the auxiliary organizations have claimed responsibility for "only" a few dozens. Most were rocket fire targeting military and civilian sites in northern Israel, along with attempts to penetrate the border and exchanges of fire with IDF forces; Although there are ideological and religious differences between Hezbollah and most of the other organizations, they have been cooperating since the days of the Israeli presence in south Lebanon and the Second Lebanon War; In ITIC assessment, the auxiliary organizations' operations are fully coordinated with Hezbollah, and sometimes the operate in concert. As long as the fighting between Israel and Lebanon is waged within the framework of the so-called "equations," Hezbollah can be expected to limit the organizations' activities. However, in the event of further escalation and an all-out war, Hezbollah will most likely loosen the reins and give them more freedom to attack Israeli territory, IDF forces and civilians.
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Reactions to Hezbollah’s Attack in Retaliation for the Killing of Fuad Shukr

On August 25, 2024, Hezbollah claimed responsibility for a combined rocket-UAV attack on military targets in Israel in retaliation for the killing of Fuad Shukr, the organization's military commander, in an Israeli targeted attack in Beirut on July 30, 2024. Hezbollah claimed the attack had achieved its goals. Earlier, a hundred Israeli Air Force fighter jets carried out a pre-emptive strike against thousands of Hezbollah rocket and missile launchers in south Lebanon which were aimed at northern and central Israel; Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah secretary general, claimed 340 rockets had been fired at IDF bases in northern Israel, after which a large number of UAVs were launched deep into Israeli territory, hitting an aerial defense base and an intelligence base. He added that if the results were not "satisfactory" Hezbollah "reserved the right" to carry out further attacks; Contrary to Nasrallah's claim, the aerial defense and intelligence bases were not attacked. Israel's aerial defense forces, the Israeli Air Force and the Israeli Navy intercepted most of the rocket and UAV launches. One IDF soldier was killed and two were injured by an interceptor explosion near a Navy ship. A woman was injured by shrapnel in Acre and extensive property damage was caused; Iran and the "resistance axis" organizations, including Hamas and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad, praised Hezbollah for the attack on Israel; Social media users in Lebanon and the Arab world mocked Hezbollah's attack; Hezbollah made an effort to establish the false narrative that the IDF's preemptive attack was unsuccessful, did not cause significant damage to the organization, and claimed success in hitting important targets in Israel. That was because Hezbollah wanted to justify its activities to the citizens of Lebanon, hide the extent of the damage caused to the organization by the preemptive attack, and possibly because the extent of the damage had not yet been fully calculated; In ITIC assessment , after Hezbollah finishes retaliating for the death of Fuad Shukr, its attacks on the northern border will continue according to the organization's initial use of force and "equations," which includes proactive fire near the border and reactive fire further away with varying extent, depending on the strength and nature of the IDF's proactive activity.
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Hezbollah Issues Video of Its Imad 4 Underground Facility: Reactions and Implications

On August 16, 2024, Hezbollah released a video of "Imad 4," an underground facility for storing precision missiles and heavy rockets, claiming it missiles could hit any target in Israel, from the north to Eilat; Hezbollah-affiliated media outlets affiliated with Hezbollah stated the objective of the video was to inform Israel of Hezbollah's accurate long-range missile capabilities, the extent of the organization's fortified underground system, and to warn Israel not to start an all-out war; Lebanese opposition politicians, social activists and journalists criticized Hezbollah after the video was released, claiming it was mostly based on artificial intelligence and accusing Hezbollah of making all of Lebanon a target for the Israeli attacks; Revealing the facility underscored Hezbollah's perception of the importance of its tunnel system for storing weapons, protecting terrorist operatives, fighting and attacking Israel; In ITIC assessment, the video was released for purposes of psychological warfare to glorify its military capability and deter Israel from escalation and initiating an all-out war. Releasing the video during negotiations for a ceasefire in the war in the Gaza Strip may be regarded as part of Hezbollah's "support front" for Hamas and an attempt to put pressure on Israel to accept Hamas' demands.
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