Ad Hoc Studies

The atmosphere among Palestinians who returned to the northern Gaza Strip

Opening access to northern Gaza, as part of the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas, led to euphoria among the returnees, who did not hide their happiness and felt a sense of participation in the "victory" narrative promoted by Hamas. However, encountering the widespread destruction of homes and infrastructure in northern Gaza led to frustration and anger, and thousands of displaced Gazans returned to the south of the Strip; Some of the criticism was directed at Hamas, with accusations that the movement was not addressing the urgent needs of the residents and was instead focusing on hostage "liberation ceremonies". Nevertheless, criticism remains limited due to fears of a violent response from Hamas, which was quick to demonstrate power and governance as the ceasefire went into effect; In ITIC assessment, uncertainty regarding the timetable for Gaza's reconstruction, particularly in the north, will most likely increase frustration and many may return to the displaced persons camps in the south, where basic services exist and there is a steady supply of humanitarian aid. In addition, given President Trump's proposal to temporarily or permanently relocate the residents of the Strip, the destruction may increase willingness, especially among the younger generation, to consider leaving for abroad in hopes of building their future. In ITIC assessment, Hamas will suppress critical voices by force. However, given public frustration, the extensive destruction in Gaza will make it difficult for Hamas to sustain its "victory" narrative over time without presenting solutions, and may seek to shift responsibility, for instance to the committee for managing the Strip which Egypt is trying to promote, while striving to maintain its military strength.
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The issue of emigration from the Gaza Strip in light of President Trump’s proposal

On January 25, 2025, after the ceasefire in the Gaza Strip went into effect, U.S, President Trump proposed the temporary or permanent relocation of all Gazans in light of the extensive destruction and to facilitate reconstruction. The proposal sparked condemnations from the Palestinians, Iran and Arab states, which accused it of being a "forced displacement" in violation of international law; The proposal reignited the issue of emigration from the Gaza Strip in general and of young people in particular, known even before the Gaza Strip War. Unofficial data indicated that approximately 300,000 young people had left the Strip since Hamas took control in 2007, primarily due to the economic situation and lack of hope for the future; The Hamas leadership sought to downplay emigration, calling any reference to it a Palestinian Authority smear campaign, but a document found by the IDF in Gaza written by the Khan Yunis Brigade of Hamas' military wing indicated concerns over the departure of young people, who constituted a significant part of the movement’s fighting force; In ITIC assessment, the Palestinians and Arab states will continue to present a united front against the plan in an attempt to eliminate it in its early stages. However, even if the plan is not implemented, the opening of the Rafah Crossing and others at the end of the war could lead to a significant wave of emigration from Gaza because of the widespread destruction and uncertainty about the future. Such a scenario would pose a significant challenge to Hamas, which would do everything in its power to prevent the emigration of young people, which could weaken its political and military stranglehold on the Gazan public.
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Documents captured show how Hamas uses information published by an Israeli research center

IDF forces in the Gaza Strip captured thousands of Hamas documents, including those relating to the routes Iran used to smuggle weapons to its proxies in the "resistance axis." One of the documents described the smuggling routes for weapons, technological information and money from Iran to Lebanon and Syria, in order to examine the measures taken by Israel and the United States to prevent the smuggling; An examination of the data showed that a significant portion of the information in the captured document, including the maps, was based on and copied from publications by the Alma Center, an Israeli research institute. It is noted that the captured document contained less information than the original document; Documents published by Israeli research institutes are used by Hamas to understand to what extent its capabilities and those of the "resistance axis" are exposed, and it is entirely possible that on occasion the information is presented as Hamas insights without references to the original source. The author of the document in question pretended to have written it, presenting information as if he had acquired it himself, apparently to make it seem as though he were an authority. 
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Houthi-Israel-United States Escalation, December 2024

Since the beginning of December 2024, Yahya Saria, the Houthi military spokesperson, claimed responsibility for 21 UAV and ballistic missile attacks on Israel, six of which were carried out in cooperation with the Islamic Resistance in Iraq. It was the highest monthly number of attacks since the beginning of the Gaza Strip War. Some of the missiles and UAVs caused significant damage in Israel; On December 19, 2024, in response to the increase in attacks, the Israeli Air Force conducted a third strike on Houthi targets in Yemen, targeting areas in Sanaa, the capital, for the first time. Among the targets attacked were power stations and fuel and oil tanks, with reports of nine fatalities; The Houthis also escalated attacks on American military and civilian vessels in the Red Sea while decreasing attacks against non-American vessels. The United States carried out airstrikes against command and control facilities and underground missile storage sites; The Houthi leader and senior officials announced that despite Israeli and American strikes, they would continue attacking Israel as part of their "support for the Palestinians," and would not stop until the war in the Gaza Strip ended; In ITIC assessment, the Houthis plan to intensify their attacks on Israel, including by introducing new weapons, to position themselves as the leading active front of the "resistance axis" in light of the ceasefire in Lebanon and the halt of attacks by pro-Iranian militias in Iraq. Although the Houthis connect the continuation of their attacks to the war in the Gaza Strip, they will most likely find other pretexts to continue their violent activities in order to maintain their external and internal standing. However, international cooperation led by the United States, combining economic and military pressure, including targeted strikes on the Houthis' military capabilities, could dampen their ability to maintain their activities over time.
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PA Security Forces Operate Against Armed Terrorists in the Jenin Refugee Camp

On December 14, 2024, the Palestinian Authority (PA) security forces launched a large-scale operation against armed terrorist operatives in the Jenin refugee camp, following orders from PA chairman Mahmoud Abbas. The forces clashed with the operatives, and the commander of a local Palestinian Islamic Jihad brigade was killed; A spokesperson for the security forces stated that the operation's goal was to liberate the refugee camp from the grip of criminals. He asserted that control over the camp had been achieved and that a car bomb meant for an attack on the forces had been neutralized. According to reports, some of the wanted terrorists surrendered to IDF forces; The operation followed a rise in tensions between the terrorist operatives and the PA security forces, the result of Israeli security force activities in Judea and Samaria since the beginning of the Gaza Strip War; The operation was also part of the PA's attempts to demonstrate governance and position itself as a ruling authority in the Gaza Strip in preparation for "the day after" the war. It was also an attempt to prevent an armed uprising similar to what overthrew the regime in Syria; Hamas and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) accused the PA of collaborating with Israel, and called on the security forces to cease their "persecutions" and join the "resistance" fighters; Despite the change in PA security forces' approach and their willingness to confront armed terrorist operatives, it is a complex challenge which will require long-term efforts. Since the beginning of the war, Iran has been attempting to ignite the Judea and Samaria front against Israel. In light of the blows sustained by the "resistance axis" in recent weeks, Tehran may intensify its efforts to encourage armed factions to escalate their activities against Israel and the PA, thus there is concern that the violence may spill over into other areas in Judea and Samaria.
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The Mood in Gaza on the First Anniversary of the Gaza Strip War

A year after the October 7, 2023 Hamas attack and massacre, and the outbreak of the Gaza Strip War, the Gazans' euphoria has been replaced by despair over the heavy destruction, the displacement from homes and the high death toll; The main criticism on Palestinian social networks in Gaza focuses on the hardships of life amid the ongoing war, uncertainty about the future, hunger, high food prices and difficulties in finding shelter and food; Considerable criticism is also directed at Hamas, particularly its "external" leaders who do not live in Gaza and are perceived as disconnected from the growing suffering of the residents. Since the death of Yahya al-Sinwar, head of the Hamas political bureau in the Gaza Strip, who was seen as the "architect" of the October 7, 2023 attack, Khaled Mashal, head of the "external" Hamas leadership, has become the primary target of Gazan anger; In addition to the criticism on social media, feelings of despair and anger toward Hamas are reflected in public opinion polls, which show low support for the possibility of Hamas' continuing to rule Gaza after the war, as well as low approval for the October 7 attack and the continuation of "armed resistance" against Israel; Despite criticism and frustration, there has not yet been a broad public protest against Hamas in Gaza, most probably because of fear of retaliation, especially in light of Hamas efforts to maintain its power on the ground, including through the Interior Ministry's Sahem Unit, which theoretically operates against looters and disorderly conduct. Despite internal criticism of the leadership in Gaza, Israel is still perceived as the primary enemy and is described as "cruel and genocidal." 
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