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Ad Hoc Studies

Renewal of Hostilities and Negotiations with Israel Increase Tension between Hezbollah and the Lebanese Government

On March 2, 2026, Hezbollah’s renewal of the hostilities against Israel hardened the position of the Lebanese leadership, which accused Hezbollah of dragging the country into unwanted confrontations. The government took measures against Hezbollah and Iran, declaring Hezbollah’s military wing illegal, expelling the Iranian ambassador and all representatives of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps present in Lebanon, and implementing the state’s monopoly on weapons throughout Beirut; In an attempt to end the hostilities, Lebanese President Aoun presented an initiative for direct talks with Israel. Prime Minister Netanyahu signaled his approval and the talks are expected to be conducted by Israeli and Lebanese ambassadors under American mediation; Hezbollah accused the government of acting against the "resistance" instead of joining it to fight Israel and strongly opposed talks with Israel, which were described as "surrender." The organization warned of a "popular tsunami" against the government and demanded it apologize to the "resistance" and rescind the "negative orders." Hezbollah-affiliated media outlets accused the president and the prime minister of betrayal; Hezbollah and Amal jointly called on their supporters not to hold mass demonstrations in order to preserve civil peace, and Arab and European countries reportedly warned Parliament Speaker and Amal leader Nabih Berri that any attempt to storm the government or carry out a coup would be met with a harsh response; In ITIC assessment, Hezbollah's status in Lebanon is challenged by continued military pressure from Israel despite the ceasefire in the war in Iran and by the measures taken by the Lebanese regime to establish its governance throughout the country, including disarming the organization. The opening of direct negotiations between Israel and Lebanon is a severe blow to Hezbollah’s status, possibly leading the organization to undermine the government’s stability by having its ministers resign and shifting to protests in the streets. However, attacking political figures or attempting to take over state institutions could further isolate Hezbollah within Lebanon and drag the country into an internal conflict.
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Hamas Exploits the War in Iran to Tighten Its Civilian and Security Control of the Gaza Strip

The war in Iran and disputes regarding the activity of the new committee for managing the Gaza Strip are delaying the second phase of the ceasefire agreement, according to which Hamas is supposed to relinquish control of the Gaza Strip and disarm; Hamas is exploiting the situation to tighten its security control using violence and force against those who are critical, labeled "collaborators" or members of militias receiving Israeli support. Hamas' growing confidence is reflected in the public presence of armed operatives from the military wing and the security forces; Hamas is also continuing its efforts to rebuild its military capabilities by smuggling arms from Egypt and independently developing weapons which pose a threat to IDF forces in the Gaza Strip and to the State of Israel; Hamas is also strengthening civilian governance in the areas under its control through a wide deployment of police forces, some of whom are openly armed, and the ongoing activity of government ministries. That is manifested by tight supervision over merchants in the markets and the distribution of financial aid to Gazan civilians; In ITIC assessment, as long as Israel and the United States focus their attention on the wars in Iran and Lebanon against Hezbollah, Hamas will continue to entrench its dominance in the Gaza Strip regardless of Israeli attacks, pressure to relinquish control and disarm, and criticism from Gazans over the high cost of living and the collapse of services. Hamas will continue to tightensecurity and military governance, including accelerating its rearming and the recruitm ent and training of operatives. It will continue to strengthen civilian governance, combining violence and intimidation with the battle for hearts and minds to ensure it remains a power in Gaza even if the second phase of the ceasefire agreement is implemented and Hamas (ostensibly) transfers control to the Palestinian technocratic committee.
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The Iran-Israel War: Possible Iranian-Orchestrated Attacks on Israeli and Jewish Targets

On February 28, 2026, Israel and the United States launched a combined preemptive strike in Iran which included attacks on dozens of military, security and regime targets across the country, during which Iranian's supreme leader Ali Khamenei and dozens of other senior officials were eliminated. Iran responded with missile and UAV attacks on Israel, American facilities in the Middle East and neighboring countries; Along with a military response, concern increased that the regime in Tehran would also carry out revenge attacks on Israeli, Jewish and American targets, using the terrorist infrastructure it has constructed in many countries around the world, which it uses as a tool for attacks and attempted attacks to advance the interests of the Islamic Republic. Shi'ite religious scholars also issued fatwas and calls for jihad; Since the beginning of the war, Iranian terrorist plots against Israeli and Jewish targets in the United Kingdom and Azerbaijan have been exposed and prevented from coming to fruition. In addition, an unknown organization suspected of being inspired by Iran claimed responsibility for four attacks on Jewish institutions in Europe; Israeli sources called on Israeli citizens around the world to take increased precautionary measures, particularly near Jewish and Israeli sites, and Israeli missions reduced they activity and presence; In ITIC assessment, given the damage to the heads of the regime in Iran in general and the elimination of Iran’s leader in particular, and given the risk to the regime’s stability, Iran will seek to exact a high price from Israel and the United States, in addition to the arena of direct hostilities, and to increase pressure to halt the attacks as soon as possible. It is entirely possible that the combination of a desire for revenge and a strategic need for leverage could promote various terrorist networks directed and assisted by Iran to attack Israeli and Jewish targets worldwide, as long as the war continues and after it ends.
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Hezbollah’s Use of Force During the Current Fighting Against Israel

During the night of March 1-2, 2026, Hezbollah fired rockets at northern Israel for the first time since the ceasefire which went into effect on November 27, 2024. A day later, after a series of Israeli attacks on Lebanon, Hezbollah announced it would resume the war on Israel and began attacking military and civilian targets inside Israel and IDF forces in south Lebanon. Since March 3, Hezbollah has claimed responsibility for more than 280 rocket, missile, UAV, and other attacks; Hezbollah represented the attacks as "defensive" and in response to the Israeli attacks since the ceasefire, claiming they had no choice because the efforts of the Lebanese government to stop the "aggression" had failed. Hezbollah secretary general Na'im Qassem confirmed that the Israeli-American campaign against Iran and the elimination of Iran's leader Khamenei had provided "the appropriate timing" to resume fighting; Hezbollah's conditions for stopping the attacks are an end to the Israeli attacks and the withdrawal of IDF forces from Lebanese territory, the release of the Lebanese held by Israel and the return of the displaced to their homes in south Lebanon. The organization also wants to return to its self-declared "deterrent equation" with Israel, in effect until Hezbollah attacked Israel to "support the Gaza Strip" on October 8, 2023; Hezbollah's secretary general said they had learned the lessons of the previous war with Israel and had shifted to decentralized fighting; Hezbollah also exploited the renewed hostilities to entrench its positions regarding the Lebanese government's plan to disarm the organization; Iran and Hezbollah admitted that they were carrying out combined and coordinated missile and UAV attacks against Israel; In ITIC assessment, Hezbollah's activity since the beginning of the current attacks indicates command and control capabilities which enable it to carry out combined attacks, both by units deployed in different areas of Lebanon and in coordination with Iran, as well as the ability to control and gradually escalate the fighting. In addition, decentralization and the combination of ground encounters and long-range fire enable Hezbollah to preserve operational continuity even under continued Israeli attacks and to disperse the centers of activity along the border. The friction with IDF forces in south Lebanon indicates the limitations of the Lebanese government after its army claimed it had achieved operational control south of the Litani River as part of implementing the state's monopoly on weapons. Hezbollah will apparently continue attacking in coordination with Iran and try to end the current round of fighting with a temporary arrangement which will allow it to rebuild its military capabilities and continue its opposition to disarmament.
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The Resistance Axis Reacts to the Israel-US War against Iran and the Elimination of Ali Khamenei

On February 28, 2026, Israel and the United States launched a combined preemptive strike against Iran, attacking dozens of military, security and government targets across the country. Iran’s leader, Ali Khamenei, commanders of the army and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Khamenei's senior advisors and dozens of other officials were killed in the strikes; Iran confirmed the deaths of Khamenei and the others and announced the establishment of a temporary leadership council. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps launched Operation True Promise 4, launching missiles and UAVs at Israel and American bases and vessels across the Middle East; The resistance axis organizations in Lebanon, the Palestinian arena, Yemen, Iraq and Syria condemned the attack and claimed its objective was to support the vision of a "Greater Israel." They issued mourning notices for Khamenei’s death, stating his decades-long support for the "resistance" and said they would continue their activity against the "Zionist enemy"; On the night of March 1, 2026, Hezbollah fired rockets at northern Israel and claimed it was in response to the elimination of Khamenei, after the organization had previously threatened it would retaliate if Iran’s leader were attacked. Hezbollah intervened despite the fact that the Lebanese leadership had exerted pressure on it in an attempt to prevent the country from being dragged into external conflicts; Hamas and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) said they would not open a support front for Iran because of the damage done in the Gaza Strip War and the Houthis have not yet announced a renewal of attacks against Israel and against vessels in the Red Sea. Pro-Iranian militias in Iraq claimed responsibility for launching UAVs at American bases in the Kurdish region in the north of the country and Baghdad following strikes on militia bases which killed at least six operatives; In ITIC assessment, Hezbollah’s response was the result of Iranian pressure, despite the calls in Lebanon that it not respond. However, its commitment to Iran outweighed its loyalty to Lebanon and led to an extensive, forceful Israeli response. So far the Houthis have not responded but may join the fighting, although their considerations differ from those of Hezbollah.
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Iran Efforts to Circumvent the Sanctions by Smuggling Oil

Iran’s security forces, especially the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, use the sale of oil to finance their activities and those of their proxy terrorist organizations in the Middle East; In September 2025, the UN Security Council activated the snapback mechanism, which reinstated the sanctions which had been lifted under the 2015 nuclear agreement because of Tehran’s failure to meet its international obligations following the Iran-Israel War and the strike on its nuclear facilities; In an attempt to circumvent American and international sanctions, Iran operates a complex network of intermediaries, front companies and a ghost fleet of oil tankers. At the center stands Sepehr Energy Jahan, which serves as a front company for Iran’s armed forces and has been under American sanctions since November 2023; A cyberattack on the company’s servers and a massive leak of internal documents provided evidence of how Sepehr Energy Jahan conducts its illegal activity, exposing a long list of participating front companies, oil tankers and business partners. The documents also show that China remains Iran’s primary oil consumer despite international sanctions; In ITIC assessment, until the mechanisms activating the snapback restrictions go into effect, Iran will advance covert sanction-evasion activity, within which Sepehr Energy Jahan and its CEO Majid Azami play a central role, while continuing its prohibited business relationship with governmental elements in China.
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