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Overview
1. UN Security Council Resolution 1701, passed August 12, 2006 , marked the end of the second Lebanon war and created a new situation on the ground in south Lebanon . After a year, its implementation has been equivocal :
A. On the one hand , for the first time a significant number of Lebanese army soldiers supported by an upgraded UNIFIL force deployed south of the Litani River . Hezbollah was deprived of its status as the dominant force in south Lebanon and restrictions were imposed on its freedom of action. South Lebanon is relatively calm. Hezbollah, which has been rehabilitating its military force and struggling to bring down Fuad Siniora’s government, has refrained (for the longest time since its establishment) from attacking Israel .
B. On the other hand, Resolution 1701 has been only partially implemented, and the most essential provisions have been left unattended :
1) South Lebanon was not demilitarized and Hezbollah and the other terrorist organizations remained and were not disarmed;
2) Iran and Syria continue replenishing Hezbollah’s arsenal and rehabilitating its military force;
3) The arms embargo has not been effectively enforced and weapons are steadily smuggled into Lebanon from Syria ;
4) No significant progress has been made in the issue of the abducted IDF soldiers.
2. The Resolution’s achievements can be eroded and may not preserve quiet or provide for long-term stability in Lebanon in general and south Lebanon in particular . Once Hezbollah has completed its military rehabilitation it is liable to change its terrorist policy and renew its attacks against Israel . Moreover, its terrorist policy may change according to the considerations of its sponsors, Iran and Syria , regarding internal Lebanese and/or regional affairs (for example, a political crisis in Lebanon or a regional crisis of some sort). The rehabilitation of Hezbollah’s military force again poses a rocket threat for Israel, familiar from the second Lebanon war, and perhaps even more serious .
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